Daily Intelligence
On camera · today's script
▶ ~2 min 30 sec · read to camera
Good morning. Here's what's moving mortgages and the Alberta market today.
The headline is still the trade war. Canada–U.S. talks collapsed last weekend, and Ottawa's counter-tariffs on U.S. steel, agriculture and electronics start September 8th — and notice oil was deliberately left off the list. The U.S. has 50% tariffs on about $28 billion of our exports.
For rates, this cuts both ways. The escalation actually raised the odds of a Bank of Canada cut — back in June the Bank said it would cut further if the U.S. added trade restrictions, and now they have. But here's the part clients miss: a Bank of Canada cut helps your variable rate and prime — not necessarily your five-year fixed. Fixed is priced off bond yields, and those are grinding higher on global term premium. You can get a rate cut and still watch fixed rates hold or climb.
On the numbers — insured: five-year fixed is about 4.09% at ATB, three-year is level with it at 4.09% at Scotia, and five-year variable is the cheapest at roughly prime minus 0.9 — call it 3.55%. One special worth flagging: if your client can close in sixty days, Scotia has a three-year quick-close at 3.94%. So it's really variable versus fixed right now: take variable to catch the cuts, or lock a fixed for certainty while three and five are this close together.
Inflation ran above 3% on gasoline, but core is basically at the 2% target and most economists are looking through it. And here in Alberta, Premier Smith drew a line — she calls using our energy as a trade weapon a "non-starter," because the U.S. holds the bigger stick and it would wipe out Ontario and Quebec. Worth watching; that Alberta–Ottawa tension could get louder.
One flag on the ground: mortgage stress is building in Ontario and B.C. as renewals hit, and the banks are posting rising delinquencies. Alberta's holding up better — but migration is starting to show in our non-mortgage debt. That's the brief. Let's have a great day.
The rate board
| Product | Best | Lender | Sheet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-yr fixed insured | 4.09% | Scotiabank | current |
| 3-yr fixed uninsured | 4.34% | Scotiabank | current |
| 5-yr fixed insured | 4.09% | ATB | as of Jul 21 |
| 5-yr fixed uninsured | 4.54% | Scotiabank | current |
| 5-yr variable insured | ~3.55% | ATB · P−0.90 | as of Jul 21 ▼ cheapest |
| 5-yr variable uninsured | ~3.85% | Servus · P−0.60 | current |
| Prime | 4.45% | — | BoC 2.25% |
Mainstream = clean general quotes, each lender at its most recent sheet, held the normal rate-hold period. ATB shows "as of Jul 21" — their sheet updates infrequently, but the rate is current. 3-yr and 5-yr insured are level at 4.09%; variable is the cheapest.
Notable specials · strings attached
Bank of Canada & rates
Trade war
Alberta watch
Headline briefly topped 3% on gasoline, but core is essentially at the 2% target. Consensus is to look through the energy spike — no tightening pencilled in until well into 2027, if at all.
Mortgage stress building in Ontario & B.C. as renewals hit; Scotiabank renewal margins up, BMO delinquencies climbing. Alberta is holding up comparatively well. — Canadian Mortgage Trends
Talk track for clients today
Sources
Auto-generated 5:30 AM MT from the Economic Research KB + live rate data.
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